Context The reduction of N fertilization in agriculture as part of the Farm to Fork (F2F) strategy plays a central role in the integrated nutrient management action plan of the European Commission. However, the implications of this strategy for mitigating N losses and possible side-effects on grassland yields under global change are largely unknow. Objective We examined how a 20% reduction in N fertilization according to the F2F strategy is likely to impact yields, N2O emissions and N leaching of four intensively managed temperate grasslands in the Alpine region, two of them located in Switzerland, the other two in Germany. Methods Following automatic data-driven calibration supported by inverse modeling and a cross-validation step, the process-based model DayCent was used for conducting the analysis. Global change scenarios under the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 and a baseline scenario (current climate) were created for the time frame 2041–2060 with the help of the stochastic weather generator LARS-WG. Results and conclusions Our results indicated that, under current conditions of climate and CO2 levels (400 ppm), a 20% decrease in N fertilization would lead to a 5% drop in yields, but also in a 15% decline in N2O emissions and a 21% decline in N leaching (largely as NO3−). Under global change conditions (i.e., climate change and higher atmospheric CO2 levels), we found that increased yields, mainly induced by higher CO2 levels, are likely to compensate for yield losses resulting from the reduction in N fertilization. In addition, we found that the effectiveness of the F2F strategy to mitigate N losses is likely to be preserved under global change, still with stronger effect on N leaching. The F2F-induced decline in N losses was stronger when the latter were expressed per unit of harvested dry matter, i.e., up to 17% for N2O and up to 42% for N leaching. Although significant, these abatements in N losses are still below the 50% reduction level envisaged by the F2F strategy. Actions related to other axes of the strategy (e.g., sustainable food consumption) will be necessary to further reduce N fertilization and, therefore, to reach this ambitious goal. Significance Our results highlight the usefulness of models in accounting for interacting effects of global change and mitigation practices on multiple ecosystem services of grasslands. They allow quantification of the impact of new policies.
