Aromia bungii Faldermann (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) is a wood-boring beetle that primarily infests trees in the Prunus genus, including economically important crop species such as apricots, cherries, peaches, and plums. It is native to eastern Asia and was recently introduced to Japan, Germany and Italy. Its expanding distribution has triggered concern especially in Europe where it is now considered a priority quarantine pest. To estimate the potential threat, a first model of the potential distribution of the species was recently developed using Maxent and the WorldClim v2.1 bioclimatic variables. Variables that contributed most towards explaining A. bungii distribution were ‘Precipitation of Warmest Quarter’ (50.5%), followed by ‘Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter’ (28.5%) and ‘Precipitation Seasonality’ (11.2%). Spatial predictions show highest climatic suitability for the species in China and Korea (native range), Japan (invaded range), Northern Myanmar, Butan, Nepal and Northern India. Lower suitability is predicted for Europe, North and South America, and to an even lesser extent for South Africa and Australia. When translating predicted probabilities into presence / absence according to a no-omission threshold (recommended in case of a high-risk pest) the model predicts favourable conditions for A. bungii that extend over a much larger area than its current invasive range. This suggests that several European countries are at risk, particularly those of southern and eastern Europe. Significant portions of the US and southern Canada are also predicted to be climatically favourable for A. bungii, highlighting the risk posed to North America. The current lack of physiological data on thermal tolerance of A. bungii hampers the development of a proper semi-mechanistic model such as Climex. However, a comparison of a Climex model obtained by an inductive approach appears to confirm suitability obtained by Maxent.
