Pubblicazioni

Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are effective tools for modelling and making projections of the potential distribution of species, in space and time. Born within the framework of conservation planning, today they are applied in a variety of fields. In the field of agronomic research, SDMs are used to anticipate the effects of climate change on current crops and identify crops that would be suitable for the new climatic context. SDMs are also a valuable tool in dealing with invasive alien species, whether plant pests or neophytes. Within the framework of ‘horizon scanning’ approaches they can detect emerging threats by identifying species with the potential to establish in a given area, and they can support managers in their decisions-making by providing maps of risk and potential impact. These maps can also guide territory surveillance for early detection of these species, and support a spatial prioritization of cost-effective management actions. Furthermore, SDMs can assist in identifying potential biological control agents for pest species by modelling their potential distribution and assessing the distributional overlap with the pest they are expected to control. Based on current and future projects at Agroscope, examples of these applications will be presented for the Swiss context.