The global dairy sector has undergone substantial development over the last two decades and is expected to experience a fundamental change in the next decades. The goal of the present report is to provide a comprehensive overview of the global dairy sector developments that have occurred in the last two decades, relying on the unique database of the International Farm Comparison Network (IFCN). Our focus is on global milk production, demand, dairy farm structure, world oil, milk, and feed prices, and dairy trade. We further present the IFCN global long-term outlook for 2030, 2040, and 2050. By providing detailed insights into past and possible future developments of the global dairy market, this report aims to guide stakeholders in the dairy sector in their decision-making process. Our report is based on the standardised IFCN database, which covers 125 countries representing 99% of the world’s milk production. National data standards may vary widely among countries, making direct comparisons between countries difficult. To ensure cross-country comparability, the IFCN Dairy Research Centre, together with research partners from across the world, has developed standardisation methods that it uses to harmonise national dairy statistics and create a standardised database. Besides standardisation methods, the IFCN Dairy Research Centre has developed specific indicators (such as the IFCN Combined World Milk Price Indicator and IFCN World Feed Price Indicator) to monitor the economic situation both at farm and global sector level. In the last two decades, global milk production has experienced sustained growth despite the global challenges that have occurred in this period (e.g. the 2007–2008 financial crisis and subsequent global recession or the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020–2022, high inflation in 2021–2023). In the period 2000–2023, the growth rate of global dairy production amounted to 77%, that is, 2.5% per year. This growth resulted from a steadily increasing demand driven by two main factors: rising per capita consumption (+36%) and a growing world population (+31%). The increase in demand is especially observed in countries that are not self-sufficient in milk, such as those in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, where economic development has boosted the consumption of dairy products. In response to this sustained demand growth, coupled with a sharp increase in oil and feed prices from 2007 onwards, the IFCN Combined World Milk Price Indicator registered not only a strong increase but also showed a higher volatility compared to the period before 2007. Whereas it ranged between 10.7 and 24.1 USD/100 kg solid-corrected milk (SCM) in the period 1981–2006, it fluctuated between 26.1 and 53.4 USD/100 kg SCM in the period 2007–2023. The link between the dairy market and the oil market has strengthened. Dairy farming worldwide continues to undergo a major transformation. The long-term structural change towards fewer but larger farms is driven by technological advancements, market forces, and sustainability requirements. In 2023, 0.2% of all dairy farms produced 45% of the total milk. Dairy farm consolidation has progressed in most countries and is expected to continue, shaping the future of the dairy sector worldwide. In terms of outlook, the IFCN expects the global demand for dairy products to increase faster than the supply in the next three decades. The future unsatisfied demand is estimated to be 11 million tons of milk by 2030, with further increase expected by 2050. There are two key drivers behind the expected future development of the dairy market. First, demand will increase due to strong economic growth and population increases in major dairy-importing countries. Second, global supply will be constrained by environmental regulations, climatic conditions or limited land availability in major dairy exporters, such as New Zealand, the EU, and the United States. Other factors that are expected to play a substantial role in the future development of the dairy market are the difficulties in attracting labour to dairy farms and the challenges of recruiting skilled individuals for increasingly digitalised farm operations. An imbalance in dairy trade is expected to increase prices and could therefore lead to a substantial improvement in dairy farming profitability.
